OVERVIEW: The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan has developed a model for projecting future installation of solar PV power generation capacity and has used it to estimate the installation capacity in Japan up to 2020. The institute projects that cumulative installed capacity will rise from 6,890 MW in 2012 (5,350 MW residential and 1,540 MW non-residential) to between approximately 31,200 MW and 32,500 MW in 2020 (14,900 to 16,300 MW residential and 16,200 MW non-residential). Residential system prices are anticipated to fall from 460,000 yen/kW in 2012 to between 290,000 and 300,000 yen/kW, and non-residential from 410,000 yen/kW to 260,000 yen/kW. As a result, the feed-in tariff (price paid for generated power) will fall to between 10 and 17 yen/kWh for residential generation and 25 yen/kWh for non-residential. The total cost from 2012 to 2020 is projected to be between 3 trillion and 3.2 trillion yen, with a average surcharge of between 0.37 and 0.39 yen/kWh